DEMOS · a synthetic audience scored against reality
THE CUSTOMER PARLIAMENT
~150 synthetic customers bred from first-party telemetry, each tagged with the
evidence it was bred from. Any artifact can summon a jury; every verdict is a falsifiable
prediction reconciled against real Umami/Stripe outcomes and Brier-scored. Chronically wrong
personas are culled and re-bred.
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Population by niche
Reliability — is the jury's confidence earned?
Each resolved prediction is binned by the probability the jury assigned, then plotted
as predicted (x) vs observed conversion rate (y).
A perfectly-calibrated panel sits on the dashed diagonal. Points above the line = the jury was
too pessimistic (under-confident); below = over-confident. Dot area ∝ how many predictions fell in that bin.